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MMA WEEKLY COMMENTS AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR WEEK OF 7-27-09

DJIA Cash: Last week’s close was above weekly resistance again, which is bullish. And the close was well above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, which means it is upgraded to “on edge, trend run up. A close down this week will downgrade it back to neutral and a close up will upgrade it further. Weekly support is 8856-8912. A close below 8856 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 9219-9275. A close above 9275 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A newer bullish crossover zone recently formed at 8266-8433. The market is bullish until prices fall below here. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 9671-10,045, 10,739-10,825, 12,094-12,161, 12,432-12,496, 12,817-12,856, 13,088-13,254, and 13,825-13,969.

This starts the 3rd week of the 13-21 week primary following the 8087 low of July 8. The market was rather explosive last week, exceeding the crest of the previous primary cycle, which was 8877 on June 11. As stated last week, “(DJIA has) now closed back above the 25-day moving average (at 8436) and the prior week’s high (8328), thus confirming a new primary cycle is in force. Even if the new primary cycle turns out to bearish, the high would not be due until weeks #2-5. And if bullish, the high will not occur until after the 8th week. First resistance will be the primary cycle crest of 8878 on June 11, +/- 2% (nearly there). Above that, and we may have to look at the MCP (Mid-Cycle Pause) price target of 10,494 +/- 475. Geocosmically, we are entering a critical reversal period July 18-August 1, and especially July 24-27 +/- 3 trading days. It’s possible that could be a major or primary cycle crest.” OK. We are here, in the critical reversal zone of July 24-27, and the market is making new monthly highs as we do this.

The explosiveness of this rally has the appearance of a wave iii with a ‘C’ wave rally of a bigger wave 4 down from the highs of October 2007. If so, we could indeed meet the higher price objective target of 10,000-11,000 before it is all over. But there are always other ways to count these waves too, and a lower price target for this C-wave rally could be 9121.37 +/- 312.86. We` are nearly there with Friday’s high of 9109. This is important because right now we find Venus trine Jupiter, the heart of this critical reversal date, which could coincide with a crest. But what type? A trading cycle high, from which prices fall back 2-8 days? Or a major cycle crest, in which case they fall back 2-4 weeks? Or a primary and even 50-week cycle crest, in which case this market is about to tank for several months? My bias is that this will be a trading cycle crest, and prices will fall back 2-8 days to a trading cycle trough, and then rally again in to the Sun-Jupiter opposition period in mid-August. The alternative to that is this is a major cycle crest, and prices fall back to the major cycle trough due in weeks 5-7 (2-4 weeks from now).

• July 27         131.9* (more often a crest)
• July 28-30    93.7
• July 31         33.9###
• Aug 3-4        62.5##
• Aug 5-6        146.5**
• Aug 7            81.6#

Strategy: Last week’s strategy was as follows. “All traders can maintain bullish strategies this week, which means buy dips that do not close under the new bullish crossover zone. Be prepared to exit from long positions the following week, assuming new highs are forming then.” They are. Thus traders could take profits right now. I think most traders should take some profits here and hold onto the rest with a stop-loss under the bullish crossover zone. But on a 2-8 day decline of at least 4% (say back below 8800), start looking to add those longs back on. Very aggressive traders could look to sell short now as well, looking for 300-800 point decline by the end of next week (i.e. by August 7) Usually a primary cycle will not top out this early in the cycle after such an strong move up. But a major or trading cycle could.

SPU (Sep S&P): Last week’s close was above weekly resistance again, which is bullish. And the close was well above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, which means it is upgraded to “on edge, trend run up. A close down this week will downgrade it back to neutral and a close up will upgrade it further. Weekly support is 950.65-957.35. A close below 950.65 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 991.55-998.25. A close above 998.25 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone recently formed at 889.55-902.40. Another remains in effect at 791.10-791.25. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1012.75-1074.45, 1156.15-1180, 1384.80-1388.55, 1456.15-1473.80, and 1540.35-1559.60 in the nearby contract.

This will start the 3rd week of a new 5-23 week primary cycle here as well, following the 865.50 low of Wednesday, July 8, which was only two trading days after our July 6 critical reversal date (a hit). As stated in last week’s report, “Well, we took out all that resistance, and we are not that far away from the high of the prior cycle (952.50). If we exceed it, we could be way up to an MCP price target of 1152 +/- 57.50. The high for this primary cycle is likely either around July 24-27 or August 18, +/- 3 trading days…. in my opinion.” Here we are here too! But we have another wave ‘C’ up in this 4th wave down structure, that comes in at 994.15 +/- 38.75. We are nearly there now and this is a critical reversal date, so we could see at least a temporary top followed by a sharp decline, albeit that it may last only 2-8 days.

Strategy: I think traders should adopt bullish strategies now, per last week’s strategy section. That is, either be long or look to buy any corrective declines now that do not close underneath the newest bullish crossover zone. This is a geocosmic and solar-lunar critical reversal zone, and prices are making new highs, so aggressive traders could look to sell short here, looking for a 38-62% corrective decline of this two-week rally. But then, I would look to reverse back to the long side again.

NDU (Sep NASDAQ): Last week’s close was above weekly resistance again, which is bullish. And the close was well above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, which means it is upgraded to “on edge, trend run up. A close down this week will downgrade it back to neutral and a close up will upgrade it further. Wkly support is 1547-1558. A close below 1547 is bearish. A trade below there followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1625-1636. A close above 1636 is bullish, while a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone recently formed at 1442-1463. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1565-1627, 2059-2103 and 2141-2192 in March.

This starts the 3rd week of a new 15-23 week primary cycle following the Wednesday (July 8) low at 1392. As stated last week and before, “Since that (low on July 8) was within three trading days of the July 6 critical reversal date, it is possible (it was the primary cycle trough)…. It was. Now we look for a top around July 27, and maybe even into August 18, before revisiting those lows of July 8.” This July 24-27 critical reversal date is pertinent to the NASDAQ, and so we do look for a temporary top here and a sharp 2-8 day pullback. It could be more, because a trade above 1604 will mean this market has been up three weeks, which is the minimum 2-5 week period for a primary cycle crest in a bear market. However, I don’t think it is bearish yet. I think this primary cycle has higher to go, but first a pullback before continuing higher.

Strategy: As stated last week, “All traders can look to trade from the long side now as long as the new bullish crossover zone isn’t taken out.” That still holds. But aggressive traders could look for a point to sell short for a 2-8 day decline. All traders would be advised to buy that decline, as long as it doesn’t fall below the newest bullish crossover zone.

EUC (Euro Cash): Last week’s high was above weekly resistance and the close was back below, which is a bearish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to trend run up. Weekly support is 1.4109-1.4110. A close below 1.4109 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.4293-1.4294. A weekly close above 1.4294 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.3622-1.3676, 1.2425-1.2474, 1.2166-1.2189 and 1.2015-1.2040. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.4200-1.4322 (that held last week’s high) and 1.5322-1.5458.

This now starts the 21st week of the 21-34 week primary cycle, and possibly the 6th week of third and final 7-11 week major cycle phase. If correct, then this market may be ready to fall rather hard into a primary cycle trough in 2-5 weeks. Supporting this view is the fact that last week’s rally couldn’t close above the closest bearish crossover zone, and also that it took out weekly resistance but then closed back below, for a bearish trigger. A close below weekly support now would be a bearish sequence. Also interesting to note is that the high happened on Thursday, July 23, which is within three trading days of our July 24-27 critical reversal date. The 25-day moving average is now at 1.4043, so a trade below strongly suggests this major cycle has topped out, and probably the primary as well. The decline could then be all the way back to 1.3396 +/- .0222.

However there are some things to keep in mind that suggest the decline may not be that steep. First, the previous major cycle trough was only 1.3747. It may only test that area again. Second, it appears that this recent rally may only be a ‘B’ of a 4th wave down. That means we still have a 5th wave up to go. The ‘C’ of wave 4 down gives price targets of 1.3701 +/- .0075. But if it falls below there, we have another down to 1.3336 +/- .0118, which is back to that lower price target zone given above for a “normal” primary cycle trough. I think it may not fall that far also because it is summer time, and bankers don’t want to see currencies trade in much of a range until they return from their holidays. Of course, bankers don’t always get what they wish for either. Yet, given that the US stock market looks pretty good right now, the argument for a stronger dollar f or a few weeks gains credence. And, as stated last week, “Yet, it is late in the primary cycle, and even getting late in this final major cycle. This starts the 5th week of this final 7-11 week major cycle. It is due to top out and then begin a rather sharp 2-5 week decline. It could even top out in this forthcoming critical reversal period of July 24-27, +/- 3 trading days.” That double top high of July 23 is looking powerful right now. If it can exceed it, we could explode up to 1.4910 +/- .0290. Unless we take out that 1.4290-1.4340 resistance, however, I am more inclined to think we will fall back below 1.4000 first.

Strategy: Last week’s strategy advised, “If long, you can now bring your stop-loss up to the low of two weeks ago, or 1.3830. If you have multiple positions, be prepared to exit some or all of these positions late this week or early the next week, if new highs for this cycle are forming.” The high of last Thursday was a double top, and thus traders would be advised to take profits on all long positions now, or at least use a trailing stop below the 25-day moving average. Aggressive traders could even look to sell short against a close above 1.4350.

EUU (Sept Euro): Weekly support now is 1.4118-1.4124. Weekly resistance is 1.4303-1.4308. The weekly trend indicator point is 1.4076. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.3601-1.3699. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.4256-1.4488 and 1.5290-1.5422 in the nearby contract. The difference between cash and September is .0014 to the futures.

JYC (Dollar/Yen Cash): Last week’s high was above weekly resistance and the close was back below, which is a bearish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1st time in 6 weeks, which means it is upgraded to neutral. A close below .9377 will downgrade it back to a trend run down. Weekly support is .9347-.9366. A close below .9347 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is .9569-.9588. A weekly close above .9588 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A newer bearish crossover zone recently formed at .9467-.9511.It closed in there, so it is now vulnerable. Others remain in effect at 1.1092-1.1175, 1.1625-1.1709, and 1.2034-1.2058.

This begins the 32nd week of the 26-40 week primary cycle following the .8711 double bottom low of December 17 and January 21, unless that low formed at .9172 on July 13, the first trading day after the second passage of the 13-year Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. The difference in labeling is important. If July 13 was the primary cycle crest, then this market (the dollar) will probably be up 3-8 weeks. This would only be the 2nd week of a new primary cycle. And the price target would be .9658 +/- .0115, or perhaps a re-test of the previous major cycle crest at .9888. The slope of the daily stochastics suggests this is a new primary cycle. But, as we know, technical signals can be fake outs too. Thus, if this is an older primary cycle, the market will reverse right here, in this current critical reversal zone, and fall hard into the primary cycle trough that is still ahead. A close below the weekly trend indicator point (.9377) would support that view. Note that this is close to weekly support too, and a close below .9347 means the market is putting in a bearish sequence, and thus the .9172 area would likely be seen again by mid-August. Geocosmics tell us we should be shorting the Dollar here, and technicals say we should be buying. So, we are cautious and waiting for these studies to get aligned with one another.

Strategy: Aggressive traders could look for a point to sell short the Dollar this week, based on the critical reversal date. However, technicals are bullish, and if the Dollar declined into next Friday-Monday, these same traders would be advised to look to buy the Dollar. All other traders should just stand aside until the studies are in agreement.

JYU (Sept Yen): Last week’s close was a bullish bias. This week’s support is 1.0437-1.0457. Weekly resistance is 1.0687-1.0707. The trend indicator point is now at 1.0675. The trend indicator point is neutral.

Euro/Yen Spread – Cash: Last week’s high was into weekly resistance, and the close was back below, which is neutral but with a bearish bias. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to trend run up. Weekly support is 1.3259-1.3288. A close below 1.3259 is bearish, and a trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.3616-1.3644. A close above 1.3644 is bullish, but a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.4072-1.4096 and 1.5058-1.5325.

This will now start the 3rd week of a newer 21-34 week primary cycle following the 1.2700 low of July 8, just two days after the July 6 critical reversal date. The spread has rallied into this critical reversal zone, so we could see a reversal here. However, it is still very early in this primary cycle, so I don’t think we’ve seen the primary cycle crest yet. That means we can continue buying corrective declines that do not fall below 1.2795. A normal corrective decline here would take prices back to 1.3130 +/- .0102.

Our strategy: Aggressive traders could look to sell short now as long as prices do not close above last week’s high. But more conservative traders would be advised to buy a decline back to 1.3130 +/- .0102, with a stop-loss under 1.2800.

SFU (Sep Swiss Franc): Last week’s high was above weekly resistance and the close was back below, which is a bearish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral A close up this week will upgrade it to a trend run up. Weekly support is .9286-.9287. A close below .9286 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is .9420-.9421. A close above .9421 is bullish. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at .8334-.8359. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at .9430-.9457 in the nearby contract on a closing basis.

This starts the 20th week of the 21-34 week primary cycle. As stated before, “Last week’s July 6 critical reversal date did not produce anything of note in this market, so now we focus on July 21-30 as a big reversal zone for currencies…. Right now it looks more likely to be a high than a low.” So we got a high on July 21, and closed with a bearish trigger. A close below weekly support now will be a bearish sequence, suggesting a move down to .9100 or lower. Note that the weekly trend indicator point (.9286) and weekly support (.9286-.9287) are together. That’s powerful support, and until it is taken out, this market cannot be considered bearish. If it is taken out, the crest of the primary cycle may very well be in, and a 2-5 week or greater decline is underway.

Strategy: Last week’s strategy stated, “Aggressive traders may look to trade from the short side if prices make a new primary or even major cycle crest into the critical reversal zone of July 24-2 7, +/- 3 trading days.” They did. Stay with that position especially if prices start to close under .9286, with a stop-loss over last week’s high. In fact, all traders could adopt bearish strategies if .9286 breaks.

TYU (Sept T-Notes): Last week’s range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close down this week will downgrade it to trend run down. Weekly support is 115/11-115/18. A close below 115/11 this week will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 117/12-117/19. A weekly close above 117/19 is bullish. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 118/30-119/12 (that held the high on this last big rally), 125/13-125/14, and 126/09-127/00.

This now starts the 7th week of a newer 16-20 week primary cycle, following the 112/25 low of June 11. The market made a new high for this cycle at 119 on Friday-Monday, July 10-13, which coincided with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction of July 10. That was at least a major cycle crest and this decline is now in the time band for a 5-7 week major cycle trough. It is due now, and this is a critical reversal date. If it is forming right now, we should see at least a 2-8 day rally to the crest of the next major cycle crest, and maybe more, depending on the phasing of the longer-term cycle. As stated last week, “If it (119 high of July 10) was a major cycle crest, then the trough is due anytime in the next week or two, with a price target of 114/12-115/26. We are getting close, and July 24-27 is a critical reversal zone (+/- 3 trading days) that coincides with reversals in interest rate markets.” We dropped to 116 last week, so we are close.

I will also repeat comments from two weeks ago: “Geocosmics provide an argument for either the bullish or bearish camp. On the bullish side, the 112/25 low of June 11 occurred with the Moon’s North Node in early Aquarius, a sector of the zodiac that coincides with long-term cycle reversals, as discussed in depth in the annual Forecast Book. It suggests this is a new 25-month cycle, with means prices will be up for 3-8 months. Yet Saturn is transiting in hard aspect to the FRB natal Venus, followed by a year of Saturn and Pluto in hard aspect to the FRB Sun-Pluto opposition, which suggests the longer-term trend will remain down for many, many months. That’s why we have to vigilant to the possibility that this rally is forming a primary cycle crest right now. At the least, it is a major cycle crest. Since Jupiter and Neptune conjunct on Friday, July 10, and Jupiter-Neptune can represent an easing of rates, the high could have formed on Friday, or early this week.”

Strategy: Last week’s strategy section stated, “A major cycle trough is due at any time, and ideally July 21-30. If we get a low there, traders may look to buy against a close under 114/12. But then we will look to sell short the next rally, which may last only 1-3 weeks, and may not take out 119.” Thus traders may look to buy this week, but be careful if we close under weekly support.

CZ (Dec Corn): Last week’s low was below weekly support and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger again. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 7th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 342 this week will upgrade it back to neutral. Wkly support is 312-316. A close below 312 will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 341-342. A close above 342 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 381-394 and 433-439. The market is bearish until it can close back above the lowest one at least.

This starts the 20th week of the 15-21 week primary cycle, although it could also be either the 12th week or 1st week of a newer primary cycle. As stated two weeks ago, “But I am inclined to favor the former (older), as prices are dropping so sharply, a characteristic more consistent with the end of an older primary cycle than the middle of a newer one. We have now taken out the 349 low of December 5, which means we are in the downside dominancy phase of a longer-term cycle. Yet, a time band for the primary cycle trough is now in effect, so a bottom could form at anytime in the next three weeks, to be followed by a sharp 2-5 week rally. I think the solar eclipse of July 22 is a good place to look for this primary cycle trough…Watch for intermarket bullish divergence to Soybeans, which may not make a new low now if Corn does.” Bingo! That is exactly what happened, as Corn made a new low at 314-3/4, and Soybeans did not. If correct, look for a 2-5 week rally now to the primary cycle crest, with a price target at 395, +/- 19.

Strategy: As stated last week, “… traders are still advised to look for signs of the primary cycle trough, due at any time now, and an opportunity to buy. Our focus will be on the solar eclipse of the following week, July 22. If Corn is making a low then (or double bottom), traders can look to buy. Aggressive traders could be long even now against a close under weekly support.” Remain long against a close under 314-3/4. We intend to hold on for 2-5 weeks.

SX (Nov Soybeans): Last week’s low was into weekly support and the close was back between support-resistance, which is neutral but with a bullish bias. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 6th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 921 will upgrade it to neutral. Weekly support is 892-894. A close below 892 this week will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 937-939. A close above 938 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 1044-1048.

This starts either the 21st week of an older 15-21 week primary cycle in Soybeans, or the 3rd week of a new one following the sharp drop to 881 on July 8, just two days after the July 6 critical reversal date. My bias is that this is a newer primary cycle, and last week’s low was just a challenge to it that held, while at the same time Corn went to a new low, for a case of intermarket bullish divergence on a solar eclipse. Even this current pullback is into another reversal zone associated with Soybeans and Corn (July 24-27), and I think this will hold too. As stated last week, “I am inclined to think that the 881-883 double bottom will hold, but Corn may go lower this week, reinforcing the intermarket bullish divergence signature. Not only is this week’s solar eclipse (Tuesday-Wednesday) important, but so too are the signatures of July 21-28. Since the market is falling into this time band, and since a primary cycle trough is due, we will be looking to buy for a healthy 2-5 week rally.” We are on target unless prices fall back below 883.

Strategy: Traders may remain long against a close under 882, or on a weekly close under weekly support. Our target for this rally is 990 +/- 26 or even higher.

WZ (Dec Wheat): Last week’s close was below weekly support, which is bearish and negates the prior week’s bullish sequence. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 7th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 555 will upgrade it back to neutral. Wkly support is 525-531. A close below 525 this week will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 562-568. A close above 562 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A newer bullish crossover zone at 551-553 just broke.

This now starts the 3rd week of a newer 15-21 week primary cycle in December contract, following the 538 low of July 7, one day after our July 6 critical reversal date. But on Friday, we fell back to 542-/4, which is already testing the low of three weeks ago. Perhaps this is a double bottom, since July 24-27 is a critical reversal point that is relevant to Wheat. If it breaks by more than 3 cents, it may men this is an older primary cycle than we have it now labeled. Or, it means Wheat will be down for 12-18 more weeks. I don’t favor this outlook that is a new primary cycle that has turned bearish yet.

Strategy: Traders may still remain long with a stop-loss on a close or trade below 535, or if stopped out last week, look to buy again with stop-loss on the low of this move down by Wednesday. I think this could be a double bottoming forming in this critical reversal period.

GCQ (Aug Gold): We will switch to December contract next week. Last week’s close was into weekly resistance, which is mostly bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to trend run up. Wkly support is 940.90-942.90. A close below 940.90 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 961.40-963.40. A close above 963.40 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

This starts the 15th week of an older 15-21 week primary cycle, or the 3rd week of a newer one off the 904.80 low of July 8. If the later, then that was a 13-week contracted primary cycle trough, which would be very bullish. As stated last week, “Now we have to exceed the critical resistance in the 952 area. If we do that, this could get very exciting. But if not, and we close back below 920, the possibility still remains that we could fall back to 860-870 for an normal 15-21 week primary cycle.” Well, we closed at 953.10, which is barely above that critical 952 area. It didn’t get explosive, which has me concerned that perhaps we just saw the crest of the third and final major cycle of an older primary cycle. That high (957) last week happened within this July 24-27 critical reversal zone (+/- 3 trading days). If that was a major cycle crest to an older primary cycle, then this market is probably coming down 2-5 week, back to test the 900 area again. On the other hand, if it can close above last week’s high of 957 – and certainly above weekly resistance, then this is a newer primary cycle, and 1000 or higher could be seen in the next 5 weeks.

Strategy: Aggressive traders (any traders) may look to cover at least half of long positions now as we are making new multi-week highs in this critical reversal zone. In fact, aggressive traders may even look to sell short if prices fail to exceed weekly resistance, or close above 957, on Monday. Since this may be a newer primary cycle, those who are long or wish to be long may need to set a stop-loss below 900, or a close below weekly support. If the market closes up at the end of this week, we would want to be long some positions. Looking out a bit longer, all traders will want to be long before August 14, when heliocentric Mercury enters Sagittarius, which we expect will be bullish for Gold. Ideally the first two weeks of August will provide a chance for all traders to get long. That may be a primary cycle trough in an older primary cycle, or a major cycle trough in a newer one.

SIU (Sep Silver): Last week’s close was into weekly resistance, which is mostly bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1st time in 7 weeks, which means it is upgraded to neutral. A close below 1322 will downgrade it back to a trend run down. Wkly support is 1351-1360. A close below 1351 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1406-1415. A close above 1415 is bullish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1641-1737, and 1881-1987 in the nearby contract. A bullish crossover remains in effect at 1096-1103.

This starts the 15th week of an older 13-21 week primary cycle, unless it formed Monday, July 13, at 1243.50. As stated last week, “That’s possible because Gold did not (make a new low) and it was only one day following the July 10 conjunction of Jupiter and Neptune. We thus have a case of intermarket bullish divergence where one of the indices made a low within the accepted critical reversal zone (Gold on July 8), and the other within one day of an important geocosmic signature. As long as it (1243.50 low) holds, there is ample cause to treat this as a new primary cycle. But again, we must close above that 22-day moving average to further support this bullish bias.” We did that, so I favor the idea that this is the 2nd week of a new primary cycle. Still, there is concern because we are making a high in this July 24-27 reversal zone. If it is a new primary cycle, the decline might only be back to 1316 +/- 18. If this is an older primary cycle, then a decline will likely fall below 1243.

Lunar cycles for this week (from “The Sun, Moon, and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader”). First numbers represent potential for reversal, where anything above 120 has high probability of isolated top or bottom to trade opposite of, and second column represent “Big Range Day” potentials in which Silver could have a range of at least 35 cents (probably more these days) – good for day trading. * represents strong reversal or big range day. The more * the stronger it is. # represents low likelihood for a reversal or big range day. The more #, the less likely a reversal or big range day.

• July 27          112.0         115.5 (more often a crest, if anything)
• July 28-30      28.1###   99.0
• July 31          140.0*       132.0*
• Aug 3-4         111.4         146.5**
• Aug 5-6         104.8         102.9
• Aug 7             67.0#        96.0

Our strategy: Position traders may remain long with a stop-loss on a close below 1290 or 1315, depending on risk allowance. Aggressive traders who are long may wish to take profits here and even sell short as this is a critical reversal date. Look to buy back on a 50-100 point decline from this high into the first two weeks of August.

Using this information properly: Support may represent favorable risk/reward places to buy if the trend is up. If prices trade below support, then have a close back above it, it is considered a bullish "trigger", and oftentimes represents a good buy signal. Resistance may represent favorable risk/reward places to go short if the trend is down. If prices trade above it, then have a weekly close back below, it is considered a bearish "trigger, and oftentimes a good sell signal.

MMA comments and trade recommendations are primarily for traders of commodity and futures contracts. They are provided mainly with "speculators" in mind. By its very nature, "speculation" means "willing to take risk of loss." Speculators" must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say "investors". That is why they are "speculators." Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way "speculators" become profitable is not so much by high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. MMA's comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. MMA's trade recommendations will be of potential value only to speculators. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day's trading. There is no guarantee as to future accuracy or profitability. Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone's financial or commodity markets decisions. Futures or options trading are considered high risk.